World Economic Outlook
TOC
- Assumptions and Conventions: vii
- Preface: ix
Chapter I.
- Global Economic Prospects and Policies: 1
- Advanced Economies: 3
- Developing Countries: 13
- Transition Countries: 16
Chapter II.
- Issues in the Current Conjuncture: 18
- Global Issues: 30
- Advanced Economies: 39
- Developing Countries: 43
- Transition Countries: 48
Chapter III.
- EMU and the World Economy: 51
- EMU: A New Policy Regime: 52
- Establishing Conditions for a Successful EMU: 65
- Managing Uncertainties in the Preparations for EMU: 68
- External Effects of EMU: 70
- Reaping the Benefits of EMU: Importance of Fiscal and Labor Market Reforms: 75
Chapter IV.
- Exchange Rate Arrangements and Economic Performance in Developing Countries: 78
- Changing Pattern of Exchange Rate Arrangements: 78
- Factors Underlying the Evolution of Exchange Rate Arrangements: 80
- Analytical Issues in the Choice of Regime: 82
- Macroeconomic Characteristics of Exchange Rate Regimes: 86
- Exchange Rate Arrangements: Problems and Policies: 89
- Challenges of Rapid Growth and Capital Inflows for Exchange Rate Regimes: 94
- Capital Account Convertibility: 96
Chapter V.
- Monetary and Financial Sector Policies in Transition Countries: 98
- Recent Conduct of Monetary Policy: 98
- Development of Market-Based Instruments for Monetary Policy: 103
- Development of Efficient Banking Systems: 105
- Other Factors Affecting Conduct and Transmission of Monetary Policy: 108
- New Challenges for Monetary Policy: 114
| ANNEXES | ||
| I | China-Growth and Economic Reforms | 119 |
 |
Economic Reforms | 120 |
|
Sources of China's Growth | 122 |
|
The Unfinished Agenda | 124 |
| II | Implications of Structural Reforms Under EMU | 128 |
|
Alternative Reform Scenarios for EMU | 128 |
|
Sensitivity Analysis I: Aggregate Demand Shocks Under EMU | 129 |
|
Sensitivity Analysis II: Asymmetric Demand Shocks Under EMU | 131 |
|
||
| BOXES | ||
| I | 1. Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections | 6 |
|
2. Alternative Exchange Rate Assumptions for Japan | 8 |
| II | 3. The European Union's Stability and Growth Pact | 58 |
|
4. Asymmetric Shocks: European Union and the United States | 60 |
| III | 5. Currency Boards | 84 |
|
6. Dollarization | 92 |
| IV | 7. Financial Sector Problems and Monetary Policy in Countries in Transition | 106 |
|
8. Relative Price Adjustment and Price Convergence in Transition Countries | 110 |
|
||
| ANNEX | ||
| I | 9. Hong Kong, China: Economic Linkages and Institutional Arrangements | 122 |
| II | 10. Scenario Assumptions | 129 |
|
||
| STATISTICAL APPENDIX | ||
|
Assumptions | 133 |
|
Data and Conventions | 133 |
|
Classification of Countries | 134 |
|
List of Tables | 145 |
|
Output (Tables A1-A7) |
147 |
|
Inflation (Tables A8-A13) |
158 |
|
Financial Policies (Tables A14-A21) |
166 |
|
Foreign Trade (Tables A22-A26) |
175 |
|
Current Account Transactions (Tables A27-A32) |
183 |
|
Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables A33-A37) |
195 |
|
External Debt and Debt Service (Tables A38-A43) |
206 |
|
Flow of Funds (Table A44) |
216 |
|
Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables A45-A46) |
221 |
|
||
| TABLES | ||
| II | 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections | 19 |
|
2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment Rates | 20 |
|
3. Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt | 22 |
|
4. Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices | 26 |
|
5. Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices | 27 |
|
6. Selected Economies: Current Account Positions | 28 |
|
7. Capital Flows to Developing Countries, Countries in Transition, and Newly Industrialized Economies | 29 |
|
8. Major Industrial Countries: Questions About Inflationary Pressures | 31 |
|
9. Selected Latin American Countries: Macroeconomic Indicators of Cyclical Change | 44 |
|
10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Economic Developments and Their Distribution 19 | 45 |